All major, and many minor, roads blocked; gasoline, diesel and propane shortages; commercial food markets closed or empty; occasional violent confrontations with generally peaceful protesters; threats to close the international airport. The results of a political crisis created by efforts to illegally overturn the Guatemalan presidential elections held in August.
It seems that Guatemala rarely makes the international news for anything good. While the story of Guatemala’s current civil strife did garner some world attention initially, it’s now being overwhelmed by the events in the Middle East. I think probably deserves more attention than it is getting.
What happened?
On August 20th, Dr. Bernardo Arévalo overwhelmingly won the second, run-off, round of the 2023 Guatemalan presidential elections. Winning more than 60% of the national vote he became the president-elect. He is slated to take office on January 14th, 2024.
Guatemala has more than twenty recognized national political parties. Each picks its own presidential candidate to run in the first round of presidential elections. If no candidate wins greater than a 50% majority of nationwide votes, a run-off election is held between the top two candidates. The Movimiento Semilla, Arévalo’s political party, is a relative newcomer and was vastly underestimated by the major parties. At the end of the first round, Arévalo had placed second in vote totals and qualified for the run-off.
As a center-left reform politician, Arévalo’s popularity and appearance in the run-off election was something of a surprise to the previous right-wing governing political parties. Having long controlled the national political scene and much of the national press, many observers believe the ruling parties fell victim to believing their own press releases and self-published polling.
(Right: Dr. Bernardo Arévalo, President-Elect of Guatemala)
Manufacturing a Political Crisis
When the results of the first election were made public, the nine right-wing political parties were shocked. Banding together, they demanded the election be declared fraudulent and took their case to court. They alleged that, six years ago, Semilla submitted fraudulent signatures with their 2017 application to be recognized as a political party. (A flimsy case, impossible to prove, but whose investigation could be made to last months, if not years.) The parties asked for Semilla to be suspended from participating in the final round of elections pending this “investigation”. At first the courts did indeed suspend Semilla, relenting only when the Supreme Court vacated the suspension. Arévalo went on to win in an election that official observers from the United Nations, European Union, Organization of American States and the U.S. called fair and without significant fraud.
After the election the current Attorney General Consuelo Porras and her investigators, upped the ante. Porras ordered police raids of Semilla‘s offices and the National Election Court, illegally seizing documents and ballot boxes in an effort to “prove” that there was voter fraud involved in Arévalo’s election. Porras, reportedly a friend of out-going President Alejandro Giammattei, is currently under U.S. sanctions both for anti-democratic activities and interference in anti-corruption investigations in Guatemala.
The People Take to the Streets
Porras’s raids sparked an immediate political and constitutional crisis. Earlier actions against Arévalo and Semilla had produced many protests and the occasional roadblock. Bloqueos (roadblocks) are an oft used protest tactic in Guatemala and usually only last a day or two. Generally they are a minor inconvenience that generate little notice. This quickly became different.
Activist groups representing the indigenous Maya and Xinka peoples, who make up a large part of the population, banded together with groups representing the poor, calling for a general strike and setting up fourteen Bloqueos around the country in strategic areas. The protests quickly spread, with many other groups and even local government officials joining in. Now there are nearly two hundred such bloqueos, barricading most of the transportation in the country. The general population has been very supportive, either joining in or feeding and otherwise supporting the protesters. Some in our local area have been walking along the road carrying food to the truck drivers who have been stranded along the main highway from Mexico.
Until last night, the protests have all been peaceful. Little violence has occurred and has largely been directed at the protesters by individuals or small groups trying to run the blockades or provoke trouble. I encountered one of those groups yesterday while walking on the road near our offices. Several men on motorcycles had grouped up together with baseball bats, clubs and pieces of lumber, a block or so away from a bloqueo. They were very focused on the bloqueo, but when two National Police pickup trucks arrived, the group immediately turned and rode away together.
The protesters have tried to organize the roadblocks to have minimal impact on emergency services and the poor. Allowed to pass:
- The sick and people with medical appointments
- Health care workers
- Fire, police and military personnel
- Foreigners with flights leaving the country
- Pickup trucks with vegetables and basic grains to feed local populations (only at night)
Because there have been a few instances of the vital services being refused passage, the notice above was sent out via social media again this morning.
The President Speaks
President Alejandro Giammattei appeared on national television last night to address the political crisis. His message was not well received. Refusing to directly address the concerns or demands of the protesters, he blamed the protests instead on unspecified foriegn actors and just a few Guatemalans. Giammattei claimed the the protests were illegal and not supported by most Guatemalans. He threatened the arrest of the protest leaders. Giamatti said that there isn’t a Coup d’état, since Arévalo hasn’t become president yet, but statd he would leave office on January 14th. The president also claimed the protests were NOT nonviolent, despite all evidence to the contrary.
Coincidentally, within minutes of his speech a large group of masked people emerged from the crowds in Guatemala City and began breaking windows, looting, setting fires and even throwing stones at fire engines responding to the scene. They accosted police and protesters alike, injuring at least two police officers and an unknown number of demonstrators. Police responded with tear gas and riot gear. Even the government called the rioters “infiltrators”. They did not attempt to claim they were part of the protest movement.
The leaders of the 48 Cantones indigenous Maya group replied today. They vowed to remain in the streets until the Attorney General resigns or is removed from office, along with her lead investigator and judge. 48 Cantones is one of the major leaders of the protest movement.
How This Crisis Affects AMEDICAusa and What Comes Next
We are not a political or governmental organization and pose no threat, nor have direct ties, to either side. That alone should keep us above the fray and out of any immediate danger.
I, and the other in-country volunteers are fine and secure. We have made provisions for the next few weeks and have plans should the situation deteriorate and become threatening. We remain ready to assist any of our fire department friends in an emergency as needed, and as we can.
Obviously, this has impacted our more routine activities, cancelled meetings, classes, fire station visits and the like. The fuel situation is critical and we are limited to what is currently in our vehicles, so the day to day office and household things are limited to what we can carry while walking. We cook with an eye toward saving the propane available, since supplies are limited. Water is not yet a problem.
As to current and future events, I have no crystal ball. We are located far from Guatemala City in a relatively rural department. The vast majority of the people I come in contact with are very sympathetic to the protesters, participating in the protests or actively helping them. Even the couple of truck drivers we have helped, who are stranded here, are supportive of the protests, though eager to get home. I have not met a single Guatemalan locally is is vehemently opposed to them, though some complain about the inconvenience the bloqueos cause. Should the Government attempt to carry through with the threat of mass arrests and forcibly removing the bloqueos, things could get dicey pretty fast.
That said, there are videos and posts this morning on social media showing Policía Nacional helicopters landing and unloading unspecified cargo to heavily armed officers in Totonicopan, near the offices of 48 Cantones.